Review of Fertilizer Prices – August 2023

Overview

  • Prices generally moved lower in August after showing strength in July.

 

Issue driving nitrogen

  • Prices have weakened late in the month after an increase in the first few weeks of August.
  • Weakness is expected to continue into September.[1]
  • There was a large commitment of Chinese urea under the Indian tender which was one of the largest tenders in nearly 3 years.[2]

 

Issue driving Potash

  • Prices have stabilized after dropping in the month of August.[3]
  • Nutrien announced it would pause its plan to increase potash production inorder to cut costs.[4]
  • Global supply is expected to remain tight and Brazilian and European demand should improve.[5]

 

Issue driving Phosphate

  • Prices have stabilized after dropping in the month of August.[6]
  • China continues to have export restrictions for phosphate.[7]

 

Product

Location

Quantity

Average price in 2022

Q2/23 Price

Q3/23 Estimate

Q4/23 Estimate

2023 full year Estimate

Q1/24 Estimate

Q2/24 Estimate

2024 full year Estimate

Ammonia

Tampa (cfr)

Mt

1167

385

303

377

463

475

525

475

UAN

New Orleans (cfr)

ston

544

248

40

275

273

300

300

275

Urea

Midwest (fob)

ston

666

465

425

425

435

425

425

400

DAP

Midwest (fob)

ston

827

677

550

525

506

500

450

444

Potash

Midwest (fob)

ston

726

451

390

375

419

375

350

344

 

 

Source: BMO Capital Markets - September 1, 2023

 

[1] Jackson 5, BMO Capital markets – September 1, 2023

[2] Jackson 5, BMO Capital Markets – August 18, 2023

[3] https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/ag/crops/article/2023/08/30/major-retail-fertilizer-prices-lower

[4] https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/ag/crops/article/2023/08/23/uan32-anhydrous-lead-retail-prices

[5] Jackson 5, BMO Capital Markets – September 1, 2023

[6] https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/ag/crops/article/2023/08/30/major-retail-fertilizer-prices-lower

[7] Jackson 5, BMO Capital Markets – September 18, 2023