Review of Fertilizer Prices - June 2022

Review of Fertilizer Prices – August 2023

Overview

• Prices generally moved lower in August after showing strength in July.

 

Issue driving nitrogen

• Prices have weakened late in the month after an increase in the first few weeks of August.
• Weakness is expected to continue into September.[1]
• There was a large commitment of Chinese urea under the Indian tender which was one of the largest tenders in nearly 3 years.[2]

 

Issue driving Potash

• Prices have stabilized after dropping in the month of August.[3]
• Nutrien announced it would pause its plan to increase potash production inorder to cut costs.[4]
• Global supply is expected to remain tight and Brazilian and European demand should improve.[5]

 

Issue driving Phosphate

• Prices have stabilized after dropping in the month of August.[6]
• China continues to have export restrictions for phosphate.[7]

 

Product	Location	Quantity	Average price in 2022	Q2/23 Price	Q3/23 Estimate	Q4/23 Estimate	2023 full year Estimate	Q1/24 Estimate	Q2/24 Estimate	2024 full year Estimate
Ammonia	Tampa (cfr)	Mt	1167	385	303	377	463	475	525	475
UAN	New Orleans (cfr)	ston	544	248	40	275	273	300	300	275
Urea	Midwest (fob)	ston	666	465	425	425	435	425	425	400
DAP	Midwest (fob)	ston	827	677	550	525	506	500	450	444
Potash	Midwest (fob)	ston	726	451	390	375	419	375	350	344

 

 

Source: BMO Capital Markets - September 1, 2023