Review of Agricultural Commodity Prices - Nov 2022

Review of Agriculture Commodity Prices – November 2022

Corn

The price of corn is down 2.62% in November and is up 22% since November 30, 2021 as measured by the National Corn Cash price.

The largest issues in the corn market in November;

• Mexico has stated it will not import US corn in 2024 but did indicate it was willing to negotiate with the United States on this issue.[1] 
• A large part of Ukrainian corn may be left to overwinter in fields due to difficult harvesting and fuel shortages.  
• The Chinese customers updated its list of approved Brazilian corn exporters on Wednesday which would jumpstart sales of corn to China.[2]

 

Soybeans

The price of soybeans is up 5.53% in November and is up 22% since November 30, 2021 as measured by the National Soybean Cash price.

The largest issues in the soybean market in November;

• The Argentina soybean crop has been severely delayed due to drought – some farmers may not be able to meet their planting forecasted yields.[3] 
• The government announced a new soybean dollar program where farmers can exchange pesos at a rate of 230 pesos per dollar from soybean sales.[4]  The official exchange rate is approximately 165 pesos per dollar.

Wheat

The price of wheat is down 5.74% in November and is up 7% since November 30, 2021 as measured by the Cash Wheat price.

The largest issues in the wheat market in November;

• There is concern about the United States winter wheat crop.  It may come down to early March rains to save the crop.[5]
• Egypt is a large wheat importers but announced it has reserves for at least the next 5 months.[6] 
• Since the Ukraine and United Nations grain deal restarted in November, only half as many ships have been leaving Ukrainian ports – only 5 are leaving verses 10 a day previously – the reason given was on Russian reluctance to speed up ship inspections.[7] 
• In Europe, dry weather in southern European Union raises concerns about the condition of winter wheat crops.[8] 
• Indians state wheat stock is lower by 50% this year verses last year but is higher than the official target of 20.5 million tonnes for the quarter entering December 31.[9]  The Indian government is considering releasing state reserves in the open market to lower the price of wheat.[10] 
• In Argentina, the 2022/23 wheat harvest has been cut to 11.8 million tonnes down form 13.7 million tonnes and could fall further due to drought.[11]