Don McGugan

Associate Portfolio Manager, Wealth Advisor, Investment Advisor and Financial Planner

Tel: 519-354-7060
Tel: 519-627-8782
Tel: 519-344-8181
Fax: 519-354-5522
Toll Free: 866-575-0255

Address

BMO Nesbitt Burns
100 Ouellette Avenue
Suite 1100
Windsor, ON
N9A 6T3
Map

BMO Nesbitt Burns
819 St Clair Street
Chatham, Ontario
N7M 5J7

BMO Nesbitt Burns
770 James Street
Wallaceburg, Ontario
N8A 2P5

BMO Nesbitt Burns
429 Exmouth Street
Sarnia, Ontario
N7T 5P1

Contact Me

Historical Accuracy of Profarmer Crop Tour

Profarmer Crop Tour – History of Results verses National Agriculture Statistics Service

Each August, Profarmer goes into the major corn and soybean producing states and survey’s fields and develops an estimate of what yields will be.

Methodology - Corn

Crop scouts enter the field beyond the end rows and they recommend walking 35 paces past the end rows. They measure the row width and hook a 30' length of rope on a corn stalk. Next, scouts count the number of ears in two rows along the rope, and pull the 5th, 8th and 11th ears from one of the rows.
 
The scouts husk the ears, measure the length of cob and count the number of kernels rows around.  An average of the number of earns in the two rows is calculated.  Then an average of the grain length is taken of the 3 cobs pulled and an average of the kernel rows.

They the scouts plug it into the formula:

Ear count (X) x grain length (Y) x kernel rows (Z) = 5460/row width (30') = ABC bushels per acre.
 
Methodology - Soybeans

Crop scouts enter the field, get past the field's end rows and use a measuring tape to determine row width and define a 3' section of a row. They count all of the plants in the row and then pull three random plants from it.

Then scouts count pods on each plant and figure an average pod-per-plant count. Then scouts plug their numbers into this formula (I inserted numbers for this example):

Number of plants in 3' (X) x Average number of pods per plant (Y) = Pods in 3' (Z) x 36 (makes it a square) = ABC/row spacing (15) = 1176 pods in a 3' by 3' square.

All above methodology is sourced from https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/blogs/market-matters-blog/blog-post/2013/08/19/crop-tour-arrives-yield-estimates
 
Historically accuracy of the Profarmer tour

Based on history from 2003, the Profarmer tour is very accurate in predicting  both the September National Agriculture Statistics Service (NASS) yield estimate and the NASS Final yield estimate (released in January of the following year).

On average, the corn estimate is off by 0.31 bushels when compared to the September NASS yield estimate and is off by 2.03 bushels when compared to the Final Year-end NASS yield estimate.

On average, the soybean estimate is off by 0.27 bushels when compared to the September NASS yield estimate and is off by 0.99 bushels when compared to the Final Year-end NASS yield estimate.
 
The data from each Yield Tour is below;
 
Corn            
Year Pro Farmer NASS September NASS Final Profarmer less NASS Sept Profarmer less NASS Final Source for Profarmer Data
2003 139.1 138.5 142.2 0.6 -3.1 1
2004 147.3 149.4 160.3 -2.1 -13 1
2005 136.6 143.2 147.9 -6.6 -11.3 1
2006 151.5 154.7 149.1 -3.2 2.4 1
2007 153.5 155.8 150.7 -2.3 2.8 1
2008 153.3 152.3 153.9 1 -0.6 1
2009 160.1 161.9 164.7 -1.8 -4.6 1
2010 164.1 162.5 152.8 1.6 11.3 1
2011 147.9 148.1 147.2 -0.2 0.7 1
2012 120.3 122.7 123.3 -2.4 -3 1
2013 154.1 155.3 158.8 -1.2 -4.7 1
2014 169.3 147.4 171 21.9 -1.7 1
2015 168.8 167.5 168.4 1.3 0.4 1
2016 170.2 169.6 174.6 0.6 -4.4 1
2017 167.1 169.9 176.6 -2.8 -9.5 2
2018 177.3 181.3 176.4 -4 0.9 3
2019 163.3 168.2 168 -4.9 -4.7 4
2020 177.5 178.5 172 -1 5.5 5
2021 177         6
Average difference     -0.31 -2.03  
             
Soybeans            
Year Pro Farmer NASS September NASS Final Profarmer less NASS Sept Profarmer less NASS Final Source for Profarmer Data
2003 37.7 36.4 33.9 1.3 3.8 1
2004 37.9 38.5 42.2 -0.6 -4.3 1
2005 38.5 39.6 43.1 -1.1 -4.6 1
2006 40.9 41.8 42.9 -0.9 -2 1
2007 42 41.4 41.7 0.6 0.3 1
2008 40 40 39.6 0 0.4 1
2009 41 42.3 44 -1.3 -3 1
2010 44.9 44.7 43.5 0.2 1.4 1
2011 41.8 41.8 41.5 0 0.3 1
2012 34.8 35.3 39.6 -0.5 -4.8 1
2013 41.8 41.2 43.3 0.6 -1.5 1
2014 45.4 45.4 47.8 0 -2.4 1
2015 46.5 47.1 48 -0.6 -1.5 1
2016 49.3 49.4 52.1 -0.1 -2.8 1
2017 48.5 49.9 49.1 -1.4 -0.6 2
2018 53 52.8 50.6 0.2 2.4 3
2019 46.1 47.9 47.4 -1.8 -1.3 4
2020 52.5 51.9 50.2 0.6 2.3 5
2021 51.2         6
Average difference     -0.27 -0.99  
             
References          
1 - https://agresource.com/33257-2/        
2 - https://ocj.com/2017/08/2017-farm-journal-midwest-crop-tour-summary/  
3 - https://ocj.com/tag/pro-farmer-crop-tour/      
4 - https://ocj.com/2019/08/final-estimates-in-from-2019-pro-farmer-midwest-crop-tour/
5 - https://www.profarmer.com/news/agriculture-news/pro-farmer-crop-tour-fact-finding-mission
6 - https://www.agweb.com/markets/market-analysis/jerry-gulke-politics-weather-and-pro-farmer-crop-tour-take-prices-lower