September 2023 Newsletter

Ashley Nichols - Sep 15, 2023
This month we discuss how our brains make us bad investors, and how inflation can be a great time to re-evaluate your debt vs savings plan. We share our comments from August's market trend, and of course, we share our performance numbers. Enjoy!

 

Money is a tool. It's something that supports your life!

Fall Photo Contest!

The summer has gone by so fast and we are starting to see some beautiful colors in the trees! As we prepare to harvest our gardens, prepare our homes for colder temperatures, and pull out the sweaters, we'd love to see what makes you smile about fall!

Maybe it's the Pumpkin Spice Latte? Or spooky Halloween decorations? Maybe it's the turkey you'll be cooking for family during Thanksgiving, or the pumpkin pie that follows!

Whatever tickles your fancy about fall, we'd love to see it! 

Send your fall photos in between now and November 3rd for a chance to win a $100 gift card to a restaurant in your city! Please submit via email to Ashley.Nichols@nbpcd.com and title your email "Fall Photo".

The winner is chosen at random and will be announced in the November Newsletter. Good luck to all who enter!

Planning Tip

Did you withdraw from your TFSA this year? Do you have the money now to put back into your TFSA? You may want to hold off until the next calendar year! TFSAs have a maximum contribution limit every year, and if you have completely maxed out your contributions, you will need to wait until the next year to put back any money you take out. 

For example: John has a TFSA that he's put his maximum contribution into every year. This year, he's put in his $6,500 contribution, and his TFSA is valued at $97,000. John took out $10,000 for some home renovations this year and would like to put that money back. If he was to do it this year, the CRA counts this as an over contribution, and John will be penalized for it. John will have to wait until at least the first business day in January to put back his 2023 withdrawal ALONG WITH his 2024 contribution.

Ron, on the other hand, has never been able to maximize his TFSA contributions. He's missed a few years and his TFSA is valued at only $43,000. He's needed to take $10,000 to pay for some expenses this year. Because Ron has NEVER maximized his TFSA, he has lots of contribution room (remember, TFSA contributions stack every year from the year you turn 18) Ron is able to put back his $10,000 withdraw in the same calendar year, as it won't put him over his lifetime TFSA contribution limit.

 

If you've withdrawn from your TFSA and are unsure whether you can put the funds back this year, give our team a call anytime! We're happy to assist with your TFSA questions!

Our Portfolio

*Hopefully everyone has had a chance to listen to our Financial 15 podcast this month! There has been great Financial Planning tips from Sean Harding. Stay tuned for our Market Commentary with Stephen & Ken coming soon!*

The markets were relatively flat in July. No trades were done in the accounts. 

 

Mega-cap technology stocks have lifted the S&P 500 this year, but that is masking the humdrum performance by the vast majority. The Magnificent Seven are up 54% year to date, while everything else is up 4%. Micro-cap are even worse at 1%. That is because the hurdle of higher interest rates and the fact that there is now a real alternative.

Returns on our 60/40, 70/30 and 80/20 Portfolios before fees:

Interesting Charts

Source: X, @TimmerFidelity, August 22, 2023

 

Technical Comments

  • The August monthly S&P 500 candlestick was a bear bar with a long tail below.
  • Last month, we said that a minor pullback can begin at any moment, and odds slightly favor there to be buyers below the first pullback.
  • August traded below July's low but reversed to close in the upper half of its range.
  • The bulls managed to create consecutive bull bars, closing near their highs, trading far above the 20-month exponential moving average.
  • The move up since March is in a tight bull channel. That means strong bulls.
  • That increases the odds of at least a small second leg sideways to up after a pullback.
  • They also got follow-through buying following the breakout above the August high.
  • They see the pullback in August simply as a breakout test of the August 2022 high breakout point.
  • The next targets for the bulls are the March 2022 high, and the all-time high.
  • They want a reversal down from a lower high major trend reversal.
  • The problem with the bear's case is that they have not been able to create strong selling pressure (bear bars with follow-through selling).
  • While August had a bear body, the long tail below indicates that the bears are not yet very strong.
  • The bears will need to create follow-through selling in September to increase the odds of deeper pullback.
  • Since August closed in the upper half of its range, it is a buy signal bar - albeit slightly weaker (had a bear body).
  • Until the bears can create strong bear bars with follow-through selling, odds slightly favor the market to still be in "Always In Long".

Millennial Minute

Hi everyone! Ashley here, back from a summer of camping with the family - and boy did we LEARN things this summer! (Like how Jasper is WAY colder at night time - so bring your winter gear!)

Back in June, I wrote an article about ten ways Millennials and Gen Z can try to navigate their finances through this intense inflation. While there were good points in the article, I didn't go into deeper details. The next few month's worth of articles will do just that - dig a little deeper into how you can keep your ship afloat while the rising costs of... well... life try to capsize us.

This month, I talk a little more about inflation and how it might benefit us in ways we haven't thought about!

As always, feel free to share this article with anyone you feel may benefit from a little financial guidance from a fellow Millennial. 

 

Click here to read more!

Five Ways Our Brains Make Us Bad Investors

Investing can be tough, but investors often make the job harder on themselves by letting their brains get in the way. Even when people have all the information they need to make wise investments decisions, their thoughts often tell them to do the opposite...

 

Click here to read more!

 

 

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