Currently we are in bull market that began after the 2008 financial crisis. Since 1900 the average bull market has lasted on average slightly under four years and has produced an average total return of approximately 123%. This current bull market has run for almost double the average bull market duration – 89 months so far.
Without a doubt, the most prevalent market moving event of 2016 took place in Britain. On June 23rd, Brits narrowly voted to leave the European Union by a slim margin of just four percent. The exact repercussions are unknown at this time, but it can be expected that the British economy may see slower growth or a possible recession as global investors access the impact on their businesses from this decision.
The best description of the first quarter of 2016 is volatile, and this applies to almost all asset classes globally. At this time last year, Oil and the Canadian dollar had suffered precipitous losses, while this year Brent crude and the Canadian dollar both have rallied more than 6 % .As well, gold staged a solid rally of more than 16%.Many commodities have experienced decent rallies resulting in commodity sensitive economies including Canada, Russia, and Brazil producing positive year to date stock market performance of 4%, 11%, and 7% respectively (excluding dividends).
This summary will be broken into four segments including an overview of our process and the markets, as well as a portfolio overview and our 2016 Forecast.