July 2025 - Monthly Update

 

Hi ,

 

Hope this note finds you and your family well as we run towards our favourite summer routines.

 

Your portfolio posted gains in June. It remains with positive performance over the past twelve months.

 

North American investment markets continued to stabilize and move higher in June.

 

Long-term interest rates in Canada (~3.5%) and the United States (U.S.) (~4.5%) remained stable.

 

For the private sector, the tone remains cautious around the macroeconomic environment. In contrast, guidance, operating efficiency, profitability, and investment at the individual business level continue to track higher.

 

We expect addition cuts to the overnight interest rate from the Bank of Canada and U.S. Federal Reserve in the second half of this year and beyond.

 

With the summer now here, the flow of economic data and corporate earnings begins to wind down. Let’s check in on a few of the most recent data points for the economy in the United States (U.S.):

 

• In May, job openings increased by 374,000 from April. There are now nearly 7.8 million available unfilled jobs in the U.S. This represents 1.07 jobs for each unemployed individual.
• In June, a net total of 147,000 new jobs were gained.
• Also in June, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Services Index increased over May. This expansionary reading was driven by positive contributions from business activity and new orders.

 

Our investment strategy is unchanged, and we continue to focus on businesses with exposure to the domestic North American economy. You and your wealth are in a strong position.

 

The view from Brian Belski, BMO’s Chief Investment Strategist:

“US stocks built upon May’s strong momentum with the S&P 500 gaining…during June and pushing the index to a record close along the way. The renewed optimism appears to have been buoyed by a series of data points that have seemingly quelled some of the worst investor fears. For instance, cooler-than-anticipated CPI numbers continue to suggest a muted tariff impact, for now at least. In addition, deescalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East also provided support, as did some more dovish comments coming from a few Fed officials. Looking ahead, we see “more of the same” as the Administration is likely to announce some major trade details in the coming weeks, which in our opinion will add significantly more clarity for both investors and businesses and likely keep the uptrend in stocks intact… The S&P/TSX gained … in June setting another new all-time high, however, the TSX has now underperformed the S&P 500 for the second month in a row. On a sector return basis, the market has clearly shifted back to a more cyclical orientation market and away from the more defensive sectors that have been outperforming over the first six months of the year. Indeed, Technology and Consumer Discretionary were among the best-performing sectors this month, while Utilities and Consumer Staples were among the worst-performing sectors for the second consecutive month. From our perspective, this is a clear acknowledgement by the market that economic and market risks around trade are fading, which we believe will continue to favour these more cyclical areas and ultimately US equities.” Portfolio Strategy – July 2025. BMO Capital Markets.

 

• Stocks in your portfolio that made a new 52 week high this past month: MasterCard, Microsoft*, Oracle*, (Sun Life*), TD Bank*, Thomson Reuters*, Waste Management*
• Stocks in your portfolio that made a new 52 week low this past month: Accenture*, Kraft
• The Loonie gained half a cent versus the U.S. dollar to $0.73

 

Thank you,

Ian, Gab, Kaitlyn, Naina, and Meeral