Q3

Today marks the end of Q3 and as always there was a good amount of volatility and economic news affecting the markets. The major focus of investors remains the current level of inflation (still too high with the CPI at 4%) and actions central banks are taking (raising interest rates) to bring inflation down to a target of 2%. With higher interest rates (the yield on the benchmark US 10-year bond is at a 16 year high), one of the key questions is whether the economy is heading to a recession (maybe, maybe not) against a backdrop of continued solid employment levels. Here is a snapshot of how various market indicators performed this quarter and note the decline in the stock market (still up on the year) and the meaningful moves in interest rates (up), the C$ (down), and oil prices (up a lot).

 

	Change in Q3	Current Level
Canada - S&P TSX Composite Index	-3.0%	19,541
US - S&P 500 Index	-3.6%	4,288
US 10 Year Government Bond Yield	+0.77%	4.58%
C$ / US$ exchange rate	-1.9 cents	$0.736
Oil – WTI (US$ per barrel)	+$20	$90.94
Gold (US$ per oz)	-$117	$1,865

Source: FactSet, Local currency values as of September 29

 

Have a great weekend,

 

Brad

 

Bradley Goldhar | Senior Portfolio Manager and Senior Investment Advisor