September 2024
Stéphane Rochon, CFA, Equity Strategist; Richard Belley, CFA, Fixed Income Analyst; Russ Visch, CMT, Technical Analyst; Eric Yoo, Associate; Ernad Sijercic, Associate
We don’t often think of Switzerland and Canada leading the developed world, but that is exactly what these two countries have recently done, at least in terms of central bank rate cuts. But coming fast on the outside is the U.S. of A. None other than Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve (“Fed”), confirmed last week that “the time has come” to lower rates at the upcoming September 17-18 meeting. This is fully in line with market expectations, with a 0.25% cut fully priced in for a while now. While the element of surprise will be absent, the fact that the world’s most important central bank will cut because of the continued positive inflation trend (a good reason) means that the impact should be positive for both bonds and equities (we present a historical discussion below, but the punchline is that Consumer stocks and Healthcare tend to be great performers). So, the year 2024 should continue to look like the mirror image of 2022 in our view. Many investors have painful portfolio memories from two years back as both fixed income and stock positions were down significantly, a rare occurrence indeed. The fault for this rested squarely on rampant inflation, which, as our readers know well, is poisonous for financial assets. Since then, however, both the Fed and Bank of Canada (“BoC”) have managed to bring price levels under control while potentially engineering a “soft landing”, a desirable outcome where the economy slows down without incurring a recession.
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Do not hesitate to give either of us a call at 416 359-7565 or 416-359-7564 or email Sharon Kubicek or Alisa Carli if you have any questions respecting your portfolio and the prevailing investment, economic and political issues at play today.