March 2026 Global Markets Commentary Brent Joyce, CFA, Chief Investment Strategist New Shocks, Underlying Positive Trends Still Intact “A body in motion stays in motion at a constant speed and in a straight line unless acted upon by an external force.” – Sir Isaac Newton, Philosophiæ Naturalis Principia Mathematica (1687)
February brought many developments to capital markets. For well-diversified investors, it was another strong month: global stock markets outside the U.S. rose – some sharply – and bonds also rallied. All this now feels distant, given the dynamic situation in the Middle East as March begins.
Iranian conflict
Capital markets have a long history of looking past geopolitical events. An initial, swift risk-off reaction is often followed by a recovery when investors return their focus to fundamentals and ask what the medium- to longer-term impact might be on global growth, corporate earnings, inflation and interest rates. This reaction function is getting milder and shorter, which reflects the increasing frequency of geopolitical upheavals and surprises in recent years. Our Special Market Update – Iran provides greater insight to our market views of the Iranian conflict.
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