November 2025 Market Commentary

November reinforced a key message: markets remain resilient despite the constant stream of negative headlines. The S&P 500 closed at 6,849 and the S&P/TSX Composite finished at 31,382, both posting solid gains for the month. U.S. equities were buoyed by strong earnings and optimism around moderating inflation, while Canadian markets outperformed on strength in financials and resource sectors. Gold surged to record highs above $4,200 per ounce, highlighting investor confidence in safe-haven assets, even as oil prices softened.

Concerns about an “AI bubble” are proving unfounded. Growth in artificial intelligence is real and accelerating, with demand for compute power far outpacing supply. This imbalance is straining infrastructure, power grids, and global supply chains—clear evidence of structural investment opportunities. Companies like Nvidia and Western Digital delivered standout results, underscoring that AI is not a passing trend but a transformative force shaping the future economy.

Economic data added further support to the resilience narrative. In Canada, GDP grew at an annualized 2.6% in Q3, avoiding a technical recession, while inflation eased to 2.2% and unemployment fell to 6.9%. The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25%, signaling stability ahead. In the U.S., GDP is projected to reach $30.1 trillion in 2025, with the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta estimating 4.2% growth for Q3 and official data showing 3.8% annual growth in Q2. While the recent government shutdown is expected to slightly reduce Q4 growth, recovery is anticipated early in 2026. Inflation remains near 3%, and the Fed has kept rates steady at 3.75–4%, balancing price stability with growth.

For investors, this environment offers genuine opportunities, but discipline remains essential. Diversification is key to managing risk while capturing upside from long-term growth drivers like AI. While volatility will persist, the underlying theme is clear: resilience and innovation continue to define markets, creating a strong foundation for forward-looking portfolios.

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