October 2025 Market Commentary

October was anything but boring. Between a U.S. government shutdown, a cooling labor market, and the Toronto Blue Jays making a run at the World Series, investors had plenty to cheer, jeer, and fear. The month closed with the S&P 500 at 6,480.20, while the S&P/TSX Composite settled at 30,260.74 both posting modest gains despite the macro noise.

In the U.S., the shutdown stole headlines early in the month, sidelining economic data releases and reminding markets that political dysfunction is still a reliable source of volatility. Yet, inflation continued to moderate, with core CPI holding steady at 3%, giving the Fed room to consider a rate cut. The bond market responded with a slight dip in the 10-Year Treasury Yield to 4.08%, while equities found footing in tech, telecom, and utilities and yes, even the boring stuff had its moment.

North of the border, Canada’s economy contracted by 0.4% in Q2, its worst showing since the pandemic. Trade tensions with the U.S. and a housing affordability crisis weighed heavily, but Ottawa’s Fall Economic Update offered some fiscal relief, including boosts to housing and worker benefits. The TSX saw strength in Energy, Materials, and Information Technology, with oil prices climbing to $60.56 and gold glittering at $4,015.77 per ounce.

While headlines have been dominated by political gridlock and economic crosscurrents, markets have shown remarkable resilience. Increased price targets for major North American indices, including a revised range of 6,700 to 7,000 for the S&P 500 and 28,500 to 31,500 for the S&P/TSX Composite,  reflect growing investor confidence in a soft-landing scenario. Despite lingering concerns around inflation, trade, and fiscal policy, equity markets continue to climb a wall of worry. And in a moment of national pride, the Toronto Blue Jays’ World Series run has offered a welcome distraction and a reminder that perseverance can lead to triumph - both on the field and in the markets.

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