August 2025 Market Commentary

August was a month where reality and perception danced to different tunes. Headlines warned of Fed independence under siege, tariffs sprouting like weeds, and even government equity stakes in private companies. Yet, markets in the U.S. and Canada lounged near record highs, seemingly unbothered. The S&P 500 is up 11.1% year-to-date, while the S&P/TSX has surged an impressive 17%, proving that investors have embraced the Oxford Dictionary’s latest addition, delulu—choosing optimism over anxiety. The result? A market narrative that feels more like a summer beach read than a geopolitical thriller.

The real drama unfolded in Jackson Hole, where Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s 20-word hint about “adjusting policy” sent markets soaring and September rate-cut odds to 90%. Meanwhile, NVIDIA delivered a classic Wall Street plot twist: it beat earnings and raised guidance, yet the stock sold off after-hours. Why? A slight miss in data center revenue versus lofty expectations, despite a 56% year-over-year surge in that segment. The irony? NVIDIA remains the AI poster child, and its outlook was strong—but in a market priced for perfection, even a whisper of imperfection can trigger a sell-off.

So, where does this leave us? Despite the noise—policy intrigue, tech volatility, and geopolitical curveballs—the underlying fundamentals remain solid. Earnings growth is robust, consumers are resilient, and businesses continue to adapt. From a portfolio manager’s lens, this is a market that rewards discipline over drama. Volatility may test nerves, but it also creates opportunity for those focused on long-term goals. In short: stay invested, stay diversified, and let the headlines entertain rather than dictate your strategy.

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