Money is a tool. It's something that supports your life!

We are well into the month of May and we continue to watch markets indicators closely. April finished on a high note, and we are expecting May to continue the trend. 

Stephen gives his commentary on last month's market performance, as well as the holdings we've added to the portfolios and why.

This month we also talk about "The Great Wealth Transfer" and how you can make the transition of estate wealth to family members less stressful and as tax efficient as possible.

Ashley's Millennial Minute gives a brief overview of the advancement of AI and how it can help with your day to day finances.

And, as always, we share our performance numbers in our 3 portfolios.

Take a few moments to read over the blog, and of course, reach out to our team if you have any questions or concerns.

We're always happy to help!

Spring Photo Contest!

Our contest is still open until May 20th - we've extended the deadline by a few days.

Whatever makes you happy about spring, we want to see it!

Ashley will get us all started by sharing her very early spring trip to the Lincoln National Forest in New Mexico! Spring had arrived in the mountains before it arrived in Edmonton - but you can still see that frost line!

Send your photo submission to Ashley.Nichols@nbpcd.com with the subject line: Spring Photo Contest by May 20th to enter for a $100 gift card to a local restaurant of your choice (or leave the choice up to us! We'll send you somewhere nice)

 

Our Portfolio

**We hope you were able to listen to our newest Market Commentary Episode. Stay tuned for a new Financial 15 episode coming this month!**

No Trades were conducted in the accounts in the month of April.  April was a positive month, driven by 10 technology stocks that account for over 90% of the move in the index. Participation has been very narrow, with only 32% of the stocks in the S&P 500 outperforming the index.  

The last time the percentage of outperformers was this low was at the end of 1999.

Returns on our 60/40, 70/30 & 80/20 Portfolios

Portfolio Analytics

The following chart shows various analytics on our portfolio:

Interesting Charts

1. Tech profits continue to rise as jobs continue to deplete... 

 

2. Sometimes big drops can mean big climbs - where is this one going to take us?

 

3. While Canadian economic growth is expected to be weaker this year than it was in 2022, the slowdown may not qualify as a recession...

 

4. We could yet see a strong finish to 2023.

 

5. You mean it isn't the avocado toast and Disney Plus subscriptions that are stopping the younger generations from buying homes??

 

6. And now, here's something we hope you'll really like!

 

Technical Comments

https://www.brookstradingcourse.com/price-action-trading-blog/

 

• The April monthly S&P 500 candlestick was a small bull bar closing near its high.
• Last month, we said odds slightly favor sideways to up in early April and traders will see if the bulls can create a follow-through bull bar in April. Or will the S&P 500 trade slightly higher but close with a bear body or a long tail above.
• The market was mostly trading sideways throughout the month, and the bulls got a strong 2-day reversal from the low of the month to close near its high in the last 2 trading days. There are potentially trapped bears.
• The bulls managed to create consecutive bull bars closing above the 20-month exponential moving average in April.
• Looking back, whenever this has happened (consecutive bull bars closing above the 20-month exponential moving average), it has increase probability of leading to at least slightly higher prices.
• The bulls want another strong leg up from a double bottom bull flag (Dec 22 and Mar 13), completing the wedge pattern with the first 2 legs being December 13 and February 2 highs.
• The next targets for the bulls are the February 2 high and the August 2022 high.
• They will need to create a strong breakout above the February 2 high with follow-through buying to convince traders that the bull trend could be resuming.
• The bears see the move down from January 2022 as a broad bear channel, with the August 2022 high as the last major lower high.
• If the S&P 500 trades higher, they want a reversal down from a small double top with the February high or a larger double top bear flag with the August 2022 high.
• The problem with the bear’s case is that they have not been able to create sustained follow-through selling since September 2022.
• The bears hope the market will stall sideways around the 20-month exponential moving average and reverse lower.
• Since April’s candlestick is a bull bar closing near its high, odds favor May to trade at least a little higher.
• Monday is the first trading day of the month. The market may gap up at the open, creating a gap on the Monthly, Weekly and Daily charts. Small gaps usually close early.
• The candlesticks in the last 12 months are overlapping sideways which means the S&P 500 likely has transitioned into a trading range phase between 4300 and 3500.
• The last 6 candlesticks are overlapping in a smaller tight trading range between 4200 and 3750.
• Poor follow-through and reversals are more likely within a trading range.
• Traders will BLSH (Buy Low, Sell High) until there is a breakout from either direction with follow-through buying/selling.
• Until the bulls can break far above the August 2022 high, the broad bear channel may still be in play.
• For now, May should trade at least a little higher in early April.
• If May is a big bull bar closing near its high, it could potentially flip the market to Always In Long.

Millennial Minute

Artificial Intelligence. As of 2023 it is no longer a science fiction concept, and we're seeing numerous AI applications coming to the forefront of the news - be it good or bad.

AI has made progress by leaps and bounds over a very short amount of time, but before we immediately see it as a threat to humanity as a whole, we should do our own reading and research into how these revolutionary lines of code can benefit us. Believe it or not, AI could be beneficial to your finances...

Click here to read this months' article!

And if you know of anyone who may find this article helpful, please feel free to share it!
*Disclaimer: These are simply my opinions based on my own independent research and don't reflect on our team as a whole.

 

Planning

The Great Wealth Transfer is Coming...

Over the next two decades, upwards of US$84 trillion globally is expected to pass from one generation to the next – both from the silent generation to boomers and from boomers to millennials. 

But before your hard-earned assets can be used by future generations, you’ll want to make sure they are passed down in the right way. You don’t want your family to squabble over your legacy or squander your estate away in a manner worthy of an episode of Succession.

 

Click here to read more!