July Market Recap

Money is a Tool. It's something that supports your life!

Brent Joyce CFA;

Chief Investment Strategist and Managing Director, BMO Private Wealth

 

 

*Hopefully everyone has a chance to listen to our podcasts,.

We are fundamental investors that use technical analysis to manage short-term market risks. We believe that risk management is not a choice, but a necessity. While we cannot control how much downside the market provides during a correction, we can control how much of the downside your account receives. We aim to avoid 60% or more of the decline in any significant downturn. Without our process, there is a good chance you will experience 100% of the downside from the market. We will help you navigate the risks and rewards of the market so that you can stop worrying about your money and start living your life.

The following is a chronological list of the trades:

We purchased a 5% tactical trading position in the BMO S&P 500 hedged to CAD.

We are looking to add to positions.

Market Overview: S&P 500 E-mini Futures

The E-mini is forming a possible final flag of the rally. Bulls see the current move as a bull flag and hope for a trend resumption by breaking strongly above it. Bears hope any move higher will lack follow-through buying, forming prominent upper tails or bear bodies.

• July was an inside doji bar closing above the middle of its range.
• Last month, we said traders would watch whether bulls could create more bull bars to test near the 8000 measured move target, or whether the market would continue to stall around the trend channel line instead.
• Bulls want a measured move to around 8000 based on the height of the April spike bar.
• Bulls want the pullback to remain weak and sideways, forming prominent lower tails.
• Bulls see the current move as a bull flag and hope for a trend resumption by breaking strongly above it.
• If the market trades lower, bulls hope the May low or the breakout point (January 28) will act as support.
• Bears want a failed breakout above the bull trend channel line, followed by a retest of the bull trend line.
• They see the move as part of a climactic rally late in a trend.
• If the market trades higher, bears hope the recent sideways trading range will be the final flag of the move.
• Bears hope any move higher will lack follow-through buying, forming prominent upper tails or bear bodies.
• Bears need to create strong bear bars to indicate strength. Without that, traders will be reluctant to sell aggressively.
• The last three candlesticks are overlapping in a small sideways trading range and could be the final flag of the move.
• Big bull bars late in a trend (April and May) can be part of a buy climax.

 

• June and July formed consecutive doji bars, indicating an area of balance.
• Traders will watch whether bulls can break above the sideways trading range toward the 8000 measured move target. If they do, traders will watch whether the breakout bar is strong or closes with a long upper tail or a bear body instead.
• Or whether the market continues to stall around the trend channel line, forming candlesticks with prominent upper tails, closing below the middle of their ranges, or bear bodies instead.
• Breakouts above or below trend channel lines typically fail within 2–5 bars (1 month per bar in this case).

Not every month needs to be about the doom and gloom of suriving in a world too expensive to thrive in. Sometimes, we need to thrive on the silliness!

If you're like me, you're conflicted about the rainy summer we've had in Edmonton. Great for the plants, great for the fires (in Alberta, at least), but bad for a lot of reasons.

We can't control the weather, but we can control our reactions! So, enjoy a silly list of things you can do to enjoy these rainy days!

Click here to read!

The Hidden Risk of Lifetime Giving

Many parents choose to support their adult children during their lifetime—helping with a first home, funding education, or providing financial stability during a pivotal moment. These decisions are typically made out of love, generosity, and a desire to see children thrive.
But when financial support is given informally—or without being clearly documented—it can create unintended challenges later. What feels straightforward today can become a source of confusion or tension during estate settlement, often at an already emotional time for families.

Click here to read!

DISCLAIMER:

The opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are those of the author as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice and may not reflect those of BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc. (\"BMO NBI\"). Every effort has been made to ensure that the contents have been compiled or derived from sources believed to be reliable and contain information and opinions that are accurate and complete. Information may be available to BMO NBI or its affiliates that is not reflected herein. However, neither the author nor BMO NBI makes any representation or warranty, express or implied, in respect thereof, takes any responsibility for any errors or omissions which may be contained herein or accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of or reliance on this report or its contents. This report is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation for or an offer to buy any securities. BMO NBI, its affiliates and/or their respective officers, directors or employees may from time to time acquire, hold or sell securities mentioned herein as principal or agent. BMO NBI -will buy from or sell to customers securities of issuers mentioned herein on a principal basis. BMO NBI, its affiliates, officers, directors or employees may have a long or short position in the securities discussed herein, related securities or in options, futures or other derivative instruments based thereon. BMO NBI or its affiliates may act as financial advisor and/or underwriter for the issuers mentioned herein and may receive remuneration for same. A significant lending relationship may exist between Bank of Montreal, or its affiliates, and certain of the issuers mentioned herein. BMO NBI is a wholly owned subsidiary of Bank of Montreal. Any U.S. person wishing to effect transactions in any security discussed herein should do so through BMO Nesbitt Burns Corp. Member-Canadian Investor Protection Fund.

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