Insights

The Through Line: As U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson tried to herd the cats toward passage of a budget reconciliation deal, bond vigilantes kept a close eye on the details. The U.S. budget deficit run rate – and the accumulated total debt......

Worried headlines were the order of the day during the first quarter of 2025. Words and deeds of the new U.S. administration produced many heavy hearts and unpleasant surprises......

The Through Line: While meant for moving objects, Newton’s first law applies to trends as well – and President Donald Trump clearly qualifies as the outside force prompting pivots in a wide swath of global trade, security and political alliances......

As we publish this report, some U.S. tariffs on Canada and Mexico have been postponed (again) until April 2. The nascent U.S.-instigated trade war is clearly negative for the entire North American economy as it increases inflation and lowers......

Equity markets in both the U.S. and Canada are being rattled by a combination of tariffs and, at least in the case of the U.S., convergent factors including DOGE cuts and softening economic data......

The Through Line: Our natural wiring prompts us toward a desire for instant (and all-too-often hyper emotional) reaction to breaking news......

January’s positive start to the year is now in jeopardy after the U.S. launched a trade war. Tariffs on China are going ahead, but Canada and Mexico have been given a temporary reprieve. The level of uncertainty remains elevated and headlines......

On February 1, U.S. President Trump signed an executive order imposing a 25% tariff on all non-energy imports from Canada and a 10% tariff on energy imports (effective February 4). In separate executive orders, a 25% tariff was levied on all imports...

After a fantastic year, market still well supported…but keep a close eye on tariffs and the unemployment rate...

The Bank of Canada (“BoC”) and U.S. Federal Reserve (“Fed”) were at it again, recently raising rates another quarter point. While we think those latest increases were unnecessary given already sharply lower inflation trends, at least we now have......