April 2026 Market Commentary

April was a month of recovery, but not without theatrics. North American markets staged an impressive rebound, even as investors were repeatedly forced to refresh their news feeds. The S&P TSX Composite rose approximately 3.7 percent during the month, finishing April at 33,964, while the S&P 500 delivered a much stronger advance of roughly 10.4 percent, closing at 7,209. The catalyst, at least rhetorically, was the on again off again commentary surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. Each headline seemed to move markets in real time, but it was the formal announcement of a naval blockade, rather than further escalation, that ultimately stabilized sentiment and sparked a relief rally. Markets are often more comfortable with certainty, even when that certainty arrives wearing a uniform.

Sector leadership followed a familiar script. Information technology stocks led the charge, as earnings from the Mag 7 largely reinforced the view that earnings power remains intact despite a volatile macro backdrop. Beneath the surface, however, energy markets continued to tighten. Forecasts now point to a potential global oil deficit approaching 9.5 million barrels per day, a dramatic reversal from a modest surplus just one year ago. That shift has renewed concerns about sustained energy price pressures, particularly after Goldman Sachs increased its outlook for late 2026, forecasting Brent crude at approximately US$90 per barrel and WTI crude near US$83 per barrel in the fourth quarter. Inflation fears, which had faded earlier in the year, began to reenter the conversation. Even so, corporate earnings remained resilient, and analysts quietly shifted from a broadly defensive posture back toward the idea of a K-shaped economy, which, not coincidentally, is where most forecasts started the year.

The irony is that while markets are meaningfully higher on a year-to-date basis, it has rarely felt that way. Volatility, geopolitical noise, and energy related anxiety have made progress feel halting rather than linear. Yet April served as a reminder that markets can climb a wall of worry when fundamentals cooperate. Earnings are growing, balance sheets remain strong, and leadership continues to concentrate in areas with genuine pricing power. Energy shortages loom on the horizon in a way the global economy has not experienced before, and that reality deserves respect. Still, markets have shown an ability to adapt, reprice, and move forward. April did not eliminate the risks, but it did reaffirm something more important. Resilience remains very much in play.

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