Rates Likely to go Down
Igor Manukhov - Oct 18, 2024
After a brief rally, the 10-year yield is approaching an overbought level. This might be an opportunity to secure some good yields.
While the stock market continues to climb and defy gravity, let's turn our attention to yields. Despite headline news about the FED cutting rates, the 10-year yields climbed in 2024 (top chart below). After hitting a low point of 3.6% in August, the 10-year yield rose to just over 4%. Bond prices suffered during that period. It appears that the 10-year yield is quite overbought (notice the RSI indicator is near 70 on the bottom chart). I have drawn vertical blue lines where similar setups took place. Notice how rates tended to go down after that. Given the expectation of shorter-term rates decreasing and a slowing economy I would expect this time rates to decline in a more pronounced fashion (similar to what happen in March of this year and October of 2023).
Longer-term bonds and interest-sensitive stocks (utilities, real estate) should do well in this environment.