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Review of Agricultural Commodity Prices - April 2022

Review of Agriculture Commodity Prices – April 2022


Corn

The price of corn rose 11.26% in April and is up 16 % since April 30, 2021.

The biggest issues in the corn market are production and geopolitical.

Of course, the Russian invasion of Ukraine will impact crop production for the foreseeable future.  We have seen corn planters running in Ukraine, however, how much will be able to be harvested?  That is unclear. 

In terms of production, there has been a slow start to planting in North America.  Additionally, there has been a drought in Brazil which is impacting Brazilian production.[1]   As a result, the International Grains Council (IGC) decreased their forecasted production by 13 million tonnes to 1.197 billion tonnes.[2]  

Outlook: positive.

Soybeans

The price of soybeans rose 5.79 in April and is up 7% since April 30, 2021.

The biggest issues in the soybean market are production issues.

In terms of production, in South America, the Argentina soybean harvest could fall due to frost – is it estimated to be 42 million tonnes.[3]  Also in South America, the Rio Grande area is 55% harvested and yields ar expected to be less than half of what historical yields are (an estimated 22.3 bushels per acre.[4]  Further, Argentina is 13% harvested verses a 5 year average of 27% harvested.  [5]The planting intentions report indicated that U.S. farmers will plan the most soybeans ever.  With the slow start to the year, this number could further increase[6]

Outlook: Negative

Wheat

The price of wheat rose 7.0% in April and is up 39% since April 30, 2021.

The biggest issues in the wheat market are geopolitical concerns and production.

Just like for corn, the Russian invasion of Ukraine will impact the wheat market for the foreseeable future.  In terms of production, the Wheat ratings as reported in the Crop Progress report is the lowest since 1989 with only 27% being good to excellent quality.[7]  However, India is producing a record wheat crop this year.[8]  Finally the Russian export quote is set to end July 1st and will be able to export wheat due to high carry over stocks.[9] 

Outlook: Unclear.
 
 
 
[2] Reuters Inside Commodities – April 22, 2022
[3] Reuters Inside Commodities – April 23, 2022
[6] United States Department of Agriculture – March 31, 2022
[7] Reuters Inside Commodities – April 26, 2022
[8] Reuters Inside Commodités – April 12, 2022
[9] Reuters Inside commodités – April 22, 2022