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Don McGugan

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Don McGugan
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Don McGugan

Review of Agriculture Commodity Prices – March 2021

Corn

For the month of March, the cash price of corn fell 1.4% and is up 67% since March 31, 2020.
In terms of weather, the forecast for Southern Brazil is not promising for Corn  - during La Nina years, there is typically sparse rainfall and colder than normal temperatures.  Cold and Dry air could move into southern Brazil with greater frequency and earlier than normal.[1]

In term of production, as of March 24th, 7% of Argentina corn has been harvested compared to 15.8% last year and 14% average in the last 5 years.[2]  Brazil’s second corn planting is 86% compete below historical averages.[3]

Outlook: The outlook for corn is strong.
 

Soybeans

For the month of March, the cash price of soybeans fell 2.33% and is up 127% since March 31, 2020.
In terms of weather, Mato Grosso in Brazil has received the highest level of rain fall in 5 years.  Although dry during September – October—November there was above normal rainfall during December ot Mar.  This has both delayed the soybean planting and the wet weather has delayed the soybean harvest.[4]

In terms of production, Brazil’s soybeans are 71% harvested verses 76% last year and verses the 5 year average of 70%.[5]  In the United States, National Oilseed Processors Association February soy crush dropped to 155.158 million bushels, the lowest crush total in 17 months.[6]

In the area of trade, China’s soybean imports form Brazil dropped 80% compared to 2020 levels.  China bought 1.03 million tonnes from Brazil in 2021 versus 5.14 million tonnes in 2020 due to rain delaying shipments from Brazil.[7]

Outlook: The outlook for soybeans remain positive.
 

Wheat

For the month of March, the cash price of wheat fell 10.96% and is up 6% since March 31, 2020.

In terms of production, the International Grains Council sees record global gain production in 2021/22 of 2.287 billion tonnes but also expects the production to be absorbed by higher consumption.[8]  Russian wheat forecast from Socevon was increased to 79.3 million tonnes from the previously expected 76.2 million tonnes.[9]  Also in Europe, in the first estimate of soft wheat yield by MARS was 5.89 tonnes per hectare, up from 5.70 tonnes per hectare recorded in 2020.[10]

In terms of trade, European Union 2021/21 wheat exports 19.34 million tonnes by March 21 – this is down from 24.65 million tonnes at the same time last year.[11]  The reason given was a lack of demand from China.

Outlook: Out of the 3 commodities, wheat may have the weakest outlook.


 
 
[1] Soybeanandcornadvisor.com – March 30, 2021
[2] Soybeanandcornadvisor.com- March 31, 2021
[3] Reuters Inside Agriculture – March 24, 2021
[4] Soyandcornadvisor.com – March 29, 2021
[5] Soybeanandcornadvisor.com – march 30, 2021
[6] Reuters Inside Agriculture – March 16, 2021
[7] Reuters Inside Agriculture – March 24, 2021
[8] Reuters Inside Commodities – March 26, 2021
[9] Reuters Inside Agricutlure – March 18, 2021.
[10] Reuters Inisde Agriculture – March 16, 2021
[11] Reuters Inside Agriculture – March 24, 2021