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Review of Agriculture Commodity Prices - November 2021

Review of Agriculture Commodity Prices – November 2021



Corn

The cash price of corn fell 1.60% in November and is up 37% in the last year.

The largest issues in the corn market in the month of November was slow planting in South America and production issues in Europe.

As of November 30th, Argentina has 30% of their corn planted verse the long-term average of 39.6%.[1]  Although planting conditions were favourable in Brazil, the weather in Argentina was not favourable.  The European Union cut its forecast for 2021/22 corn production  to 67.8 million tonnes from 68.8 million tonnes, however imports remain unchanged.[2]

Outlook: Very positive.

Soybeans

The cash price of soybeans fell 0.22% in November and is up 3.5% in the last year.

The biggest issues in the soybean complex is South American production.  Soybean rust was identified in Paraguay and Brazil.  [3]  This can lead to losses of up to 90% if not controlled.  Soybean planting in South America is practically on schedule.  Argentina has 39% of their beans planted verses a long-term average of 41%.[4]  Brazil has 81% of their beans planted verses a long-term average of 77%.[5]  Also, Argentina is set to plant the smallest soybean crop in the last 15 years.[6] 

Outlook: Positive.

Wheat

The cash price of wheat rose 0.17% in November and is up 9.71% in the last year.

The biggest issues in the wheat complex is the confusing supply and demand situation.

The Ukraine predicts that the 2021/22 winter wheat plantings will decline by 8.5%[7] however this is offset by Australia’s wheat crop is expected to be a record 34.4 million tonnes.[8]  Additionally the European Union raises their wheat export forecast  to 32.0 million tonnes form 30.0 million tonnes for the 2021/22 year.[9]  Finally, the Canadian wheat crop was poor due to drought but the Argentina wheat crop  is expected to increase to 20.3 million tonnes from 19.8 million tonnes.[10]

Outlook: Mixed.
 
 
[2] Reuters Inside Commodities – November 1, 2021
[3] www.soybeanandcornadvisor.com – November 8, 2021
[4] www.soybeanandcornadvisor.com – November 30, 2021
[5] www.soybeanandcornadvisor.com – November 23, 2021.
[6] www.soybeanandcornadvisor.com – November 1, 2021
[7] Reuters Inside Commodities – November 8, 2021
[8] Reuters Inside Commodities – November 30, 2021
[9] Reuters Inside Commodities – November 26, 2021
[10] Reuters Inside Commodities – November 26, 2021.