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Review of Fertilizer Prices - September 2021

Review of Fertilizer Prices – September 2021


Fertilizer prices are expected to fall as we go into 2022.  We have been witnessing surge pricing as farmer profitability is extremely strong.  It is likely we have seen the high prices in fertilizer for this cycle.

Biggest overall driver

The biggest driver for fertilizer prices has been European gas price increases, potential Chinese export restrictions and supply and demand imbalances.  [1]

Issue driving nitrogen

The biggest issue in nitrogen is high European gas prices and higher Chinese coal prices which continues to push the price of nitrogen higher.[2]  Overall, the supply and demand for nitrogen is relatively in balance.  There should be excess growth in urea capacity supply in the next year verses expected demand.[3]

Issue driving Potash

The biggest issue in the Potash complex has strong due to strong farm economics and an increase in ocean freight costs.[4]

Going into next year, the Supply and Demand picture for potash looks broadly in balance and prices should moderate.

Issue driving Phosphate

The biggest issue in the Phosphate complex has been weather related (i.e. Hurricane Idea in Louisiana) and geo-political – will the Chinese government put more restrictions on exports). [5].  This has had the impact of raising prices around the World and in particular North America.


We have witnessed substantial increases in the price of fertilizer this year. Although there could be increases in fertilizer prices going into 2022, we should see fertilizer prices moderate as we get later in 2022.
Source: BMO Capital Markets – September 23, 2021

Product Location Quantity Average price in 2020 Q2/21 Price Q3/21 Estimate Q4/21 Estimate 2021 full year Estimate Q1/22 Estimate Q2/22 Estimate 2022 full year Estimate
Ammonia Tampa (cfr) Mt 233 542 608 555 513 450 400 388
UAN New Orleans (cfr) ston 129 297 305 270 270 250 250 225
Urea Midwest (fob) ston 272 438 480 420 429 440 290 384
DAP Midwest (fob) ston 348 606 650 600 596 550 475 481
Potash Midwest (fob) ston 255 394 590 575 474 550 520 505
[1] Fertilizer and Chemicals – BMO Capital markets – Joel Jackson - September 23, 2021
[2] Ibid.
[3] Ibid.
[4] Ibid.
[5] Ibid