Associate Portfolio Manager, Wealth Advisor, Investment Advisor and Financial Planner
Tel:
519-354-7060
Tel:
519-627-8782
Tel:
519-344-8181
Fax:
519-354-5522
Toll Free:
866-575-0255
BMO Nesbitt Burns
100 Ouellette Avenue
Suite 1100
Windsor, ON
N9A 6T3
Map
BMO Nesbitt Burns
819 St Clair Street
Chatham, Ontario
N7M 5J7
BMO Nesbitt Burns
770 James Street
Wallaceburg, Ontario
N8A 2P5
BMO Nesbitt Burns
429 Exmouth Street
Sarnia, Ontario
N7T 5P1
Review of Fertilizer Prices – June 30, 2022
Overview
Fertilizer prices have started to moderate after a substantial move higher earlier this year.
Biggest overall driver
The largest items impacting the fertilizer market is 1) recession fears impacting overall demand and 2) the Russsia-Ukraine War
Issue driving Nitrogen
China is expected to continue to restrict urea exports until April 2023.[1] Nitrogen continues to have a relatively balanced supply and demand setup for the next year. However, possibly the biggest issue will be the surging natural gas prices which will impact the cost of nitrogen.
Issue driving Potash
Potash availability to remain tight for the rest of 2022 and 2023. Although Russian potash is finding a home (outside of North America and Europe, end users will buy Russian potash), Belarusian potash is landlocked and unable to be moved.[2]
Issue driving Phosphate
This sector of fertilizer is impacted by the export restrictions and quotas from China and Russia. China continues to keep this market tight by limiting phosphate exports to 2 million tonnes (verses year over year exports of 3.7 million tonnes for DAP and MAP)[3]. There is new phosphate supply scheduled to come on line in 2023.
Close: we have most likely seen the highs for fertilizer for the next couple of years.
Source: BMO Capital Markets – July 18, 2022