Commentary

Our Investment Commentaries are written twice a year for the benefit of our clients. In them, we address issues that impacted portfolios and strive to cover topics that we would like to know more about if our roles were reversed.

They are a matter of public record and outline some of the reasons for our success as well as demonstrate how we work with our clients.

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- EXCERPTS -
"...In our last Investment Commentary, we wrote that many investors were seriously underestimating risk with potentially flammable consequences for their portfolios. Today, we are even more convinced of this and continue to maintain a defensive stance.

... Without a doubt, it is clear that a drumbeat of enthusiasm pervades financial markets. At Commodari Antinori Group, our combined nearly twenty years as investment professionals tells us that caution is warranted."

- Commodari Antinori Group
Investment Commentary
July 16, 2007



"...Today, recent [stock market] declines have caused investors to become overly pessimistic and risk averse, in effect creating a negative feedback cycle. We recognize crowd thinking for what it is and refuse to get caught up in it. After all, a crowd only wants to be led – frequently not caring much for where – and we have learned that it is often more profitable to stand apart and think for ourselves."

- Commodari Antinori Group
Investment Commentary
January 12, 2009



"...As in earlier cycles, investors have bought into a story about the market to justify their disregard for valuations. In the early 70s, the Nifty Fifty were going to make money forever. A few years ago, the Internet was going to make traditional industries irrelevant. Today, the world seems to have completely adopted the China/India growth story, believing it means a permanent shortage of commodities. At the same time, the subprime crisis is thought to have undermined the world’s financial system. So, momentum players have piled into energy and commodity stocks and punished almost everything else. In our experience, such extreme views are rarely lasting investment themes.

...With the price of underlying commodities now at speculatively high levels, our view is that the prices of commodity stocks are too rich and offer little margin of safety..."

- Commodari Antinori Group
Investment Commentary
July 3, 2008



"...At Commodari Antinori Group we are always cognizant of risk and seek to minimize it. This is why we substantially reduced your exposure to the Energy and Material groups throughout 2006. Quite simply, we feel that the biggest gains in these sectors are behind us and that relative to risk the potential reward is simply not large enough.

- Commodari Antinori Group
Investment Commentary
January 15, 2007