Line in the Sand
Igor Manukhov - Oct 13, 2023
The market just bounced off a very important support level. For this rally to continue, it’s imperative that we break through the declining trendline, as noted on the chart below.
As expected, the market bounced off its 200 day moving average (blue line) earlier this month. Now all eyes are on the declining trend line (pink line) that developed from the late July highs and early September rebound. Despite a slightly disappointing CPI reading this week, we expect this market to resume an uptrend. Mid October through January tends to be the seasonally strongest time of the year. This is when the market bottomed last year. If we reach that declining trend line (about 4420-4450 level) and fail, chances are there are more troubles ahead. I would be lightning up on equities if that happens. Until then, I would use market weakness to add to core equity positions because we are still trading above rising 200 moving average.